|Sam Wang's Meta-Margin, Princeton Election Consortium|
Jesus, think what these people would be like without the humanizing effect of Christianity.Since I'm a fan of poker who discovered the far superior form of gambling known as prediction markets, this one really stuck out:
“Postive expectation” is a measure of a bet’s ratio to the total pot multiplied by the odds of winning. So if you’re facing a $10 raise for a $20 pot, and your expectation of winning is even, you’d make the bet because you win $20 half the time and lose only $10 the other half. Of course, for every positive expectation there’s an equal and opposite negative expectation, and that doesn’t count your ability to estimate the chances of winning, or the rake, but then I’ve never yet met a(n amateur) gambler who didn’t tell you how much in won in Vegas while leaving out what he spent to get it. It’s the triumph of hope over mathematics, which is why schools hold bake sales and bookies don’t.I'm really going to miss that guy.
|That's a whole lot of Positive Expectation right there.|