Wednesday, December 07, 2011

The Big Fib Newton

Three will get you seven (roughly) at Intrade right now if Newton Leroy Gingrich becomes the Republican nominee for President. Looks like a good bet. He's up to a 55% chance in Iowa ($5.50 gets you 4.50). Also a good bet, but one never knows with a caucus, as Ron Paul has a great ground game going in Iowa (where his claim that not forcing women to give birth is the biggest problem facing America can actually get some traction). But looking ahead to South Carolina (Newton at 60% at Intrade) and Florida (42% chance), both states where Newton Leroy is polling well, it's beginning to look like it's Newt's to lose.

Ever since Obama got elected, I've hoped that the crowd that the GOP would throw at the nomination would damage the GOP brand beyond recognition. I never expected to have a Bachman/Trump/Perry/Cain/Gingrich fail parade like this. Especially not one with 14,000 Obama commercials GOP debates. And now to have a serial adulterer/liar/fat cat/giant ego/elitist/racist/grifter as the actual nominee seems like a gift from the Gods (he says, clutching the coke bottle and looking to the skies).

I've been convinced for quite a while now that the media's incessant talk about Obama's supposed vulnerability was just ratings baiting. The weakness of the GOP field is a testament to what they see as a formidable opponent Obama is. But that weakness is also a testament to the fact that the GOP is quickly becoming a rump party. The vicious cycle that eats itself as the party attains rump status has begun now that the loons are falling for Newton's Big Fib (that he can beat Obama), and the damage to their brand increases with every word out of the former Speaker's mouth.


Dave said...

I think there's something to what you say, but let me point out that the current freak show that is the GOP field results from the firm preferences of 25% of the electorate....

the same 25% that flipped the House in '10.

If this economy is sufficiently bad, Obama loses.

If Obama suffers a scandal, Obama loses.(My Heart tells me there won't be a scandal because Obama's clean. My Brain reminds me he's a politician).

If a foreign national sets a bomb off with significant effect, Obama loses.

I won't feel good about anything, until August. I don't even trust the polls before then, except as a snapshot of an electorate that isn't even paying attention yet.

It's early.

Scott Supak said...

Dave, I think we could be in another depression and this nation won't elect Newt Gingrich. Obama's personal likeables are in the 70s.

As for this:

"If a foreign national sets a bomb off with significant effect, Obama loses."

Well, 19 mostly Saudis set off 4 bombs with wings and Bush got re-elected, so...