If Nate Silver Ignores the Emerging Democratic Majority I Hope His Readers are Betting On It

Nate Silver has dipped his toe into the 2016 Presidential prediction market with some typical horse race bullshit that papers over a few key points.

As Sean Trende has pointed out, it relies on a selective reading of the evidence — emphasizing 2012, 2008 and 2006 but ignoring 2014, 2010, and 2004.

14 and 10 are midterms, when the emerging demographic nightmare for the GOP stayed home. 2004 was way back on the demographic curve, and it was a warmongering year when the GOP used gay marriage as a wedge to get their voters out. And even then, Bush barely won.

Perhaps more important, predictions made on the premise of “emerging” majorities have a miserable track record: Republicans were bragging about their “permanent” majority in 2004, for instance, only to get their butts kicked in 2006 and 2008.

From Pew Research Center

Republicans might not have gotten their butts kicked if they hadn't lied us into a $2 trillion (borrowed) war and crashed the economy into the Little Bush Depression. They really might have had a better chance if they'd passed immigration reform.

However, this still ignores the surge in minority voters, especially Latinos, and especially in swing states, or previously red states like AZ that will gradually turn blue as long as Republicans keep hating on minorities.

And this is the important part. The sliver of the GOP that wants immigration reform, or sentencing reform, or any other logical "outreach" to minorities will be crushed by the xenophobic base that votes in primaries.

It's a real problem for them, and to shrug it off with such a condescending brush off reveals a lack of understanding of the facts behind the actual demographic theory.

So, comparing Democratic claims of an emerging majority to Republican claims isn't really fair. The GOP was bullshitting. They had nothing to base their claims of an emerging majority on. Democrats actually do. See the original book on the subject, The Emerging Democratic Majority, by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira.

But, hey, Nate, at least we can bet on it at Predict It, where a Democrat is currently a 56% favorite to win the White House.

Head for the Hills

A good friend and client who is a Los Angeles caterer tells me the majority of calls and emails she gets these days are from people looking for work. Of the calls and letters from people who want to hire her, almost all are looking for discount catering: party platters, box lunches, and cupcakes. In a recent exchange of work mail, she sent a letter from a kid who sounded pretty desperate looking for work, and she sent along this little gem:

When the unemployment runs out, head for the hills, because the streets won't be safe.

It's what I used to tell my Republican Dad: the more you suck from the bottom to the top, the more pissed the bottom will get. But maybe I was wrong about what those pissed off people will do. Because the vast majority of them are gun-toting troglodytes who believe the lies from the likes of Limbaugh and Beck, instead of getting mad and voting for liberals who will tax the rich and extend unemployment, they're actually toying with the idea of voting for the very same people who got us in this mess.

I should never underestimate the ignorance that permeates among Republicans, or even potential Republican voters. Because if you're considering voting for the same people who brought you the Trillion Dollar Adventure in Mesopotamia, the Great Recession, the BP Oil Spill, and all kinds of other problems, then you certainly deserve what you get. The rest of us will just have to suffer along with you because you can't pull your head out of your ass.